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14 Mar 2008 02:21:23 | John Porter
There are several expensive errors that are frequently made in
poker, especially Hold’em. This article will discuss the 2 most
expensive errors that players make. What makes these errors so
expensive? For one thing, we get an opportunity to make them
frequently, and even errors that only cost a portion of a bet
can add up to big dollar amounts if they are made often. As
well, sometimes when we make these mistakes we are rewarded by
winning a big pot, leading us to believe that they are not
errors at all. All of us tend to remember the big pots we win
with a miracle flop, and forget the thousand times we called a
few bets and then lost. This encourages players to make those
mistakes even more frequently. The first error that most players
make is to play too many hands. Poker is a game of patience, and
it can be boring to throw somewhere between 75% and 85% of your
hands away before you even see the flop. The truth however is
that you must do just that. The first 2 cards in Hold’em have
some value, the percentage of times that they are expected to
win. Another way of looking at this is that over thousands of
hands, some starting cards will make a profit, some will
approximately break even, and some will lose money. Of the 169
possible starting hands in Hold’em, only 40 show a profit in the
long term. That is less than 25% of the starting hands. After
the first 40, there are a few more hands that are break even, or
close to it, that can be played for a profit in certain
situations, but only in a very few specific situations. I have a
table on my web site that shows all 169 hands, their expected
value, and the amount you will win or lose over the long term.
This data is derived from more than 120 million actual hands
played, so it should be fairly accurate. For instance, the data
shows that playing a pair of aces over this long term, in a game
with a $1 big bet, you can expect to come out ahead by $1.25
million. Now, of course none of us is going to live long enough
to play that many hands, but it gives us an idea of the
difference between good and bad cards to play. If you compare
the pair of aces to say an ace and eight of different suits,
which will lose $77,031 over that same number of hands, or an
ace and a two of different suits, which will lose $165,968, you
begin to see the problem. And hands like these are routinely
played by many people at the tables. Now some of you may be
thinking that since you win so much on the pair of aces, and
also do pretty well on some of the other top hands, and only
lose numbers like $77,000, and $165,000, on the bad hands, that
you are still in pretty good shape. If so, consider that if you
played all of the 169 starting hands over this long term sample,
you would win $7,248,687 on the 40 premium hands, a pretty nice
figure. But, you would lose $10,787,747 on the bad hands. After
playing for a very long time, you would be $3,539,060 in the
hole. Not many of us can afford to play poker that way. The
second big mistake that many players make is to cold call too
many raises. Cold calling a raise is putting multiple bets into
the pot when it is your turn to bet. For example, if someone in
early position raises, when the action gets to you in middle
position you must call 2 bets in order to play. There are three
reasons why this is a big mistake. First, a player in early
position liked his hand enough that he was willing to raise with
most of the table still to play. Second, if anybody called
before it got to you, they liked their hand enough that they
were willing to call the 2 bets. Third, there are still players
to act after you who could very well re-raise, which would not
only cost you more money, but indicates yet another good hand
out against you. Also, the original raiser may re-raise again,
meaning that it will be 2 more bets when the action gets back to
you. In a situation such as this, with at least 1 big hand
against you, and possibly more, you must play only the best
hands, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK suited and AK un-suited. Furthermore,
with the AA, KK, QQ and AK suited you should re-raise. If you
think that the raiser would raise with hands like AQ, AJ, or
less, you should also re-raise with the JJ and AK un-suited.
Throw everything else away, it just isn’t worth playing. There
are 2 reasons for raising with your premium hands. First, you
get more money in the pot with hands that you have a good chance
of winning. Second, you will hopefully eliminate a few players
from the pot. Big hands like these are best played against fewer
players, and you don’t want someone with a 5 and 6 to hit 2
pair, or a straight and take the pot away from you. Remember,
play fewer hands. Throw away those ace nine off-suit hands from
early and middle position. Don’t play a 5 and 9 just because
they are suited. And if there is a raise in front of you, fold
unless your hand is good enough to re-raise. Contact the author
at http://A1-PokerInfo.com
Copyright © 2005 A1-PokerInfo.com. All rights reserved. This
article may be freely distributed and published, providing it is
distributed and/or published in its entirety, including the
contact information and copyright.
About Author :
John has been playing online for the past 3 years, has written
several articles. He can be contacted at http://A1-PokerInfo.com
where more of his writing can be found.
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