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08 Mar 2008 09:14:20 | Andrew Clacy
* Understanding the investment clock is a useful tool for
guiding you along the journey to financial independence. It
helps you know when to invest and the best performing assets at
a given point in time. * The investment clock is not a really
good tool for predicting the timing of economic trends with
great accuracy. Its real value lies in its ability to depict the
cyclical relationship between the share, property and fixed
interest markets and the order in which they occur. * The clock
tells you the most appropriate investment medium, considering
the prevailing economic indicators such as interest rates,
commodity prices and inflation. It shows that the share cycle is
followed by the real estate and then the fixed interest cycles.
The investment clock has proved accurate in reflecting the
market forces that drive the various investment cycles. And the
order in which they occur. * Looking at the clock, twelve
o'clock is the boom and a rapid increase in the demand for real
estate results in property prices rising. Often property prices
rise by 20% per annum during these boom years. * As property
purchases are primarily funded by borrowing, the increased
demand for funds causes the cost of funds that is interest
rates, to rise. As interest rates rise, companies find it harder
to make profits. This together with the fact that the booming
property market and fixed interest investments seem more
attractive, causes share prices to fall or at least stagnate. As
property prices tend to boom at these times and because interest
rates rise, the rapid growth of the property market cannot be
sustained for more than a few years. Property prices stagnate
and even fall. * At about 3 o'clock in the investment clock, the
share market is usually doing little and offers few prospects
for investors and interest rates are too high to make borrowing
for property an attractive option. This is the fixed interest or
cash part of the cycle when cashed up investors can take
advantage of the high interest rates on offer to lenders by way
of bonds, debentures and cash deposits in financial
institutions. * Other investors just try and battle on paying
more interest on their borrowed funds. * High interest rates
slow the economy and lead us into the recession. * This brings
us down to six o'clock; in the depths of a recession and as
mentioned Australia has a recession of varying magnitude every
seven to nine years. Now investors are either too scared, or
cannot afford to borrow money and in time interest rates slowly
start falling. Also during these times companies are forced to
become leaner and increase productivity. These measures and the
slowly improving economy translate into increased company
profits and this gradually stimulates share prices to recover. *
Understanding the cycle and the cyclical relationship between
the share, property and fixed interest markets is critical if
you want to maximise the return on your investment dollar, with
the minimum of risk. * You may well ask - why do economic cycles
occur in the first place? Why doesn't our market driven economy
find a nice equilibrium? The simple answer is that the world
economy is a collection of many nations each at their own
individual point of the economic clock. And each nation is made
up of millions of people each making their own financial
decisions as a reaction to, or in the expectation of, other
people's decisions. The sheer momentum of all these economies
means that they always over swing the mark, resulting in
cyclical economic movements.
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