08 Mar 2008 09:19:59 | Mark Mahorney
It caught my attention when I heard an analyst on a popular
financial news program tell investors to sell a stock because
too many analysts liked the company, citing the fact that there
were no sell ratings.
It seemed perfectly logical to me that analysts wouldn’t be
telling investors to sell 3M (MMM), which has one of the most
consistent positive earnings records in the history of the stock
markets. But being suspicious of conflicts of interest between
brokerage firms and analysts I decided to do a bit of fact
checking anyway.
While the stock did not have any sell ratings at the time of
writing, there were quite a few hold ratings. Now I feel
compelled to diverge here and say that the hold rating seems
quite illogical to me. If a stock is good enough to hold it’s
good enough to buy, and vice versa if you wouldn’t want to buy
it then you shouldn’t want to hold on to it either.
As it turns out, the average analyst rating for 3M was only
slightly and insignificantly better than the average for all
stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, of which the company
is a component.
But what was most interesting about the ratings on Dow
components was that, despite numerous and serious legal
problems, AIG (AIG) was tied with General Electric (GE) and Du
Pont (DD) for the third best rating, only bested by Citigroup
(C) and Microsoft (MSFT). AIG was actually more highly
recommended by analysts than J.P. Morgan Chase’s (JPM) and
American Express (AXP).
This didn’t do much for my confidence in analyst ratings.
So I dug a little deeper looking at the more statistically
significant S&P 500. What I found was that companies in the
index with the worst revenue performance did actually carry more
sell ratings than companies with the best performance.
At least analysts were using the sell rating, something they
seldom did in the past.
There was, however, a significant bias towards the neutral
‘Hold’ rating for all stocks indicating reluctance on the part
of analysts to commit to buy and sell recommendations.
Mark Mahorney MarketSpectator.com BlogginWallStreet.com
MarketBlog.com
About Author :
Mark Mahorney is a freelance financial writer for hire.