08 Mar 2008 12:28:38 | Tom Madell, Ph.D.
Here are some facts that might make many fund investors question
why they have chosen to invest in funds at all.
According to John Bogle, former CEO of Vanguard Funds, one of
the most trusted authorities on investing in mutual funds and a
strong advocate for ordinary investors, such investors typically
get poor returns on their investments. How poor?
Between 1984 and 2002, the average stock fund investor made just
2.7% per year on their fund investments! Hard to believe isn't
it? Yet this is for a period during which the S&P Stock 500
Index returned 12.2%, a -9.5% shortfall!
Expressed somewhat differently, had the equity investor invested
$1000 buy and hold in the average equity fund beginning in 1984,
their investment would have risen in value by $4420 by the close
of 2002, for a 9.3% return. But had he invested the $1000 in the
S&P 500 Stock Index instead beginning in 1984, his profit would
have been $7910.
But, folks, here's the biggest part of the problem: Since most
fund investors tend to buy and sell as a function of mass
psychology, which usually turns out to be wrong, the average
equity fund investor does far worse over the years than the
long-term results had he merely bought and held his funds. So,
if we track the performance of the typical investor's $1000 made
at the start of 1984, his profit would be a mere $660, or a
shocking one-twelfth of that of the $7910 shown above for the
S&P Index.
How does Bogle account for this tremendous shortfall by the
average investor? He attributes the first 3% of the annualized
loss to the management fees, costs of the higher than 100%
average turnover of stock portfolios, and other expenses
incurred by the average fund. As a result of such hefty costs,
the typical fund earns, as shown above, nearly 3% less than the
Index.
And what about the bigger 6.6% annual difference between the
9.3% return of the average fund and the 2.7% earned by the
average investor in those funds? Bogle attributes it to too many
fund choices, the great majority of which are too undiversified
to meet the typical investor's needs. Such, along with the
emotions of "greed and fear", create an atmosphere whereby
people are often tempted to make the wrong choices at the wrong
times; that is, they are too avid to buy when they should be
being more cautious, and too prone to sell out when things have
been going poorly for quite a long time rather than selling just
a small portion of their holdings, as I have advocated in my
writings. (Incidentally, several of the very kind of investment
problems reported by Bogle have been dealt with in previous
articles on my own not-for-profit website.)
So what can you do to get better results than those achieved by
the average investor?
Bogle is known for his support of index funds to reduce fund
costs. We agree that this is certainly part of the solution. We
also feel that you should choose fund companies and products
whose management fees are among the lowest.
But, unfortunately, indexing to the S&P 500 would not have
helped you a great deal during the last 5 years; the total
return for this itself somewhat undiversified index of U.S.
large cap stocks has been a miserable -1.6%. And, unfortunately,
human nature, and changing financial and personal circumstances
make it all the more difficult to hold any investment year after
year for a decade or two, as would have been required to emulate
the results above.
Even if you are confident in your own research or rely on data
provided by a trusted resource, I still recommend that you
consider how the above data might be affecting how well you are
really doing in your investments, year after year.
For more thoughts on how to avoid losing the above 6.6% annual
return, the largest part of why the average mutual fund investor
underperforms, you should invest a little time checking out some
of the relevant articles at my site at
http://funds-newsletter.com
About Author :
Tom publishes "Mutual Fund Trends & Research Newsletter", a
popular, temporarily free source of mutual fund advice at his
website at http://funds-newsletter.com. The Newsletter has been
in existence since May, 1999. Tom's investment articles have
been chosen as featured articles on numerous other web sites.