08 Mar 2008 12:27:47 | Dave Renham
I have researched some statistics that will give you more chance
of finding that winning horse racing bet, or more importantly
avoiding a losing one. I have tried to look at some more unusual
angles, that people may not be so aware of. I have used data
from 1986 to 2002 : 1. The sex of a horse makes a difference
when carrying a penalty. Colts and geldings have a far superior
record to fillies and mares.
Colts / geldings when carrying a penalty - 1523 wins from 7672
runners. Strike rate 19.9% for a small loss on investment of
3.8%.
Fillies / mares when carrying a penalty - 510 wins from 2981
runners. Strike rate 17.1% for a much bigger loss on investment
of 16.8%.
2. Horses blinkered for the first time are known to be poor
investments. However, these investments get worse the older the
horse.
2 year olds blinkered for the first time - 213 wins from 3468
runners. Strike rate 6.1% for a loss of 44.6%.
5 year olds or older blinkered for the first time - 54 wins from
1356 runners. Strike rate 4.0% for a loss of 54.8%.
3. Races with no last time out winners are less competitive than
those with 5 or more last time out winners.
This fact looks logical, but do people take this into account
when betting?
Backing the favourite in a race with no last time out winners
gave the following results - Strike rate 29.1% for a loss of
only 8.2%.
Backing the favourite in a race with 5 or more last time out
winners gave the following results - Strike rat 21.5% for a loss
of over 17%.
4. Horses that are forecast favourites do considerably better if
they actually start as favourite.
Horses that are forecast favourite and are favourite at the off
(favourite at SP) win 34.8% of their races.
Horses that are forecast favourite and are not favourite at the
off win only 18.2% of their races.
5. Horses having their first or second run of the season perform
much more poorly than horses that are having their 5th, 6th or
7th start of the season.
As with point 3, this should not be a major surprise, but there
is a bigger difference in the profit/loss figures than one might
imagine.
Horses that are having their first or second run of the season -
strike rate 8.2% for a loss of 41%.
Horses having their 5th, 6th or 7th run of the season - strike
rate 10.2% for a loss of 25.3%.
6. Beaten favourites are generally poor investments, but if the
horse starts favourite again then their chance of winning
increases considerably.
Horses that were beaten favourites last time out and do NOT
start favourite on their next start - strike rate 11.5% for a
loss of 18.6%.
Horses that were beaten favourites last time out and DO start
favourite on their next start - strike rate 34.2% for a loss of
just 5.4%.
7. Backing horses that run at Ripon that had previously ran at
either Catterick or Wolverhampton (aw) are poor investments .
Only 23 horses from 601 runners have won at Ripon having run
last time out at Catterick. That equates to a strike rate of
only 3.8%, and produced a loss of nearly 65% !! Only 11 horses
from 245 runners have won at Ripon having run last time out at
Wolverhampton (aw). That equates to a strike rate of only 4.5%,
and produced a loss of nearly 61% !!
8. Horses that won their last ran and travel from overseas are
worth consideration.
Backing last time out winners coming from overseas have made an
overall profit in the 17 years of study. 90 winners from 464
runners produced a strike rate of 19.4% and a profit on
investment of 9.6%.
About Author :
Dave Renham is a uk horse racing and Betting Researcher.
