24 Feb 2008 12:33:29 | Chris Orr
c. 2004 Chris S. Orr CCM
Weather affects every aspect of our lives. It impacts our
pocketbooks, our menus, our schedules and even our health.
We are aware of how cold weather drives up the price of natural
gas and propane (just look at your heating bills from this
year!) and how our insurance costs are adjusted for the amount
of storm damage we sustain. Changes in the weather, either real
or predicted, will affect the price of everything we buy, from
peas to plywood. Sometimes the effect will be in our favor,
sometimes it won't. How much did you pay for vegetables last
winter? Why are limes -- small and hard as they are -- so
expensive right now? Is the quality of lettuce comparable to its
price?
Contract prices on the Chicago Board of Trade are very weather
sensitive. Weather has such a huge impact on the commodities
market that traders and analysts pay hundreds and even thousands
of dollars a month for commentaries on long-range weather
forecasts. These commentaries make the rounds among traders and
analysts two or three times a week. Based on these commentaries,
the price of grain, cattle, beans, and all sorts of agriculture
products is driven up or down.
Traders look for the elusive normal weather. If the summer
rainfall forecast for the C Corn Belt of Nebraska, Iowa, and
Illinois is for above normal rainfall, futures may rise in
anticipation of the crop getting too much moisture, stunting its
growth. The same principle applies if the forecast is for too
little rainfall. If the forecast calls for near normal rainfall,
invariably the price of corn will fall in anticipation of a very
good crop and too many bushels of corn on the market in the fall
and winter. In other words, if the trading price is high, you'll
pay more at the grocery store; if it is low because of "normal"
weather, you pay less.
Are you planning to do a little construction later this summer?
Buy plywood before the first tropical storm forms over the
Atlantic Ocean. The price of plywood soars as tropical storms
and hurricanes approach the coast of the United States. People
in the path of these storms buy up plywood to "batten down the
hatches," creating local shortages. Those shortages are filled
by drawing on supplies from the rest of the country, limiting
stocks and driving up prices.
Accurate weather forecasts help some businesses compete. The
retailer Sears, Roebuck and Co. had its own meteorologists for
many years so they could sell items based on the weather. Fans
and air conditioners were in stock before a heat wave hit.
Umbrellas went on sale when it rained. Subway's corporate
headquarters tracks individual store sales against the weather.
It uses a history of weather and store sales along with the
forecast to predict store volume. Their stores in southern
California even give discounts on rainy days.
Let me pose a question to you…how much do you think the weather
affects your daily schedule? Now, I don't mean being a minute
late to work because you had to run back in the house and grab
an umbrella, but how does the weather seriously impact your
plans? Are you flying anywhere this summer? Fog, thunderstorms,
freezing rain and heavy snow still halt flights and probably
will for many years. It is just too dangerous to fly in any of
those conditions. You'd think that with all of our technology we
could fly aircraft into any sort of weather! You can avoid the
inconvenience of flight delays by planning around the weather.
Fog is most common in late fall and early spring, and usually
lifts to a tolerable level by 10 a.m. Los Angeles, Denver, Salt
Lake City and San Francisco get a lot of early morning fog
during the winter. Plan to arrive at those destinations during
the afternoon to avoid flight delays.
On the other hand, summer thunderstorms rattle the windows
around Denver during the late afternoon and evening, while
Phoenix sees windy evening thunderstorms. Arrive by mid
afternoon to avoid these nuisance storms. If you are heading
into the Midwest, thunderstorms tend to roll into Chicago and
St. Louis after midnight, delaying red-eye flights. Just a
little planning will save you the hassle of finding something to
do at the airport while waiting for the next flight, or worse
yet, missing a connecting flight and ruining your vacation.
Did you know that today's weather will affect the aches and
pains you will feel in two or three days? At least that is what
some physicians believe. I always thought today's weather
brought me today's aches and pains, but it appears the human
body has a lag time of several days. It is possible to predict
when you and I will feel these aches, pains and migraines a day
or two in advance. Think of how wonderful it will be in the
future when you can call the doctor and the appointment desk
will have an opening available for you because your medical
records matched the criteria for today's aches-and-pains index!
The use of weather information goes far beyond, "partly cloudy
with a 30 percent chance of rain." The price of food and the
convenience of having items stocked at your store, the mini-golf
place open when you'd like to go and the supply of electricity
for your home are all governed by the weather. Your physical
health is affected by the weather. Many of the things you will
do this day will be based on the weather - past, present and
future.
About Author :
Chris Orr is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist with more than
25 years of experience. His private practice includes work as an
expert witness, weather forecasting and forecaster training. His
column appears in the Rapid City Journal every Sunday. He can be
contacted at weather@rapidwx.com or through his Web site
www.rapidwx.com .