18 Feb 2008 04:18:13 | Murray Priestley
The world’s economies still dance to different tunes and have
different boom and bust cycles that tend to offset each other,
even though the differences are getting smaller. As a result,
international stocks can provide diversification for a portfolio
heavy in U.S. stocks.
Between June 1997 and October 1998, for example, Japan’s Nikkei
index lost almost 40%, but European markets did well due to
continental economic union. U.S.-style corporate restructurings
also began to pay off. One region’s success balanced the other’s
failure to get its financial house in order.
There has been less divergence between regions more recently.
Even so, we suggest the prudent investor cannot afford to ignore
overseas markets. They now represent some 44% of world market
capitalization, up from 25% about 30 years ago. International
stocks can provide solid diversification for a portfolio heavily
invested in U.S. equities.
Exchange rates add an extra flavor to foreign investments.
Fluctuations can add to or detract from profits or losses.
Institutional investors and others pay significant attention to
this factor. When the U.S. dollar was appreciating against the
Japanese yen, billions of dollars flowed out of that country and
into U.S. stocks and bonds, worsening the economic crisis in
Japan. That money started to flow back out when the currency
valuation began to reverse. Americans saw their investments in
Japan appreciate then, even when the stocks remained in neutral.
Funds that invest overseas fall into four basic categories:
world, international, emerging market and country specific.
Diversification is the key to containing risk. And, yes, a good
fund manager helps, too. Research is scarce and foreign
companies, other than some in Canada, are difficult for
individual investors to track on their own.
World funds are the most diverse of the four categories. They
are, as the name suggests, able to invest anywhere in the world,
including the U.S. As a result, they don’t offer as much
diversification as a good international fund. Some have 60% or
more of their holdings in the U.S.
World funds tend to be the safest foreign stock investments, but
only because they typically lean on better-known U.S. stocks.
Just examine the portfolio carefully to make sure they don’t
mimic your U.S. holdings. Funds invested in small- to
medium-sized companies are unlikely to duplicate the foreign
investment component of domestic funds.
Foreign funds, on the other hand, invest mostly outside the U.S.
Whether they are relatively safe or risky depends on the
countries in which they invest.
Advice: choose a fund with the best balance between countries
and regions, or be very sure the manager has a good record of
moving in and out of regions profitably.
Country-specific funds invest in a single country or region.
This type of concentration makes them particularly volatile –
especially those that invest in emerging markets. If you pick
the right country at the right time, the returns can be
substantial. Get it wrong and look for your head to be handed to
you on a plate. These funds are for the most sophisticate
investors only.
Emerging-markets funds are the most volatile, invested as they
are in undeveloped regions subject to political upheaval,
currency risk and corruption. These economies, such as
Argentina’s in 2002, can collapse; governments can fall or be
overthrown. On the other hand, these regions have enormous
growth potential. Adding a small sprinkling of emerging markets
exposure to your portfolio could serve to lessen downturns in
U.S. markets – but they are for long-term investors only, those
who can wait for fallen markets to recover.
As always, of course, the biggest risks carry the greatest
potential for outstanding rewards; you simply require nerves of
steel. The best course is to diversify well and sleep soundly at
night.
About Author :
Written & published by Murray Priestley, Managing Partner of
Portofino Asset Management, private investment managers and
publishers of the Portofino Report.
http://www.portofinoasset.com/