22 Feb 2008 09:27:12 | Ioannis Evangelos Haramis
"Take a chance! All life is a chance. The man who goes the
furthest is generally the one who is willing to do and dare. The
"sure thing" boat never gets far from shore." Dale Carnegie
(1888 - 1955)
In 1998 Economics Professor and Nobel Prize winner Paul
Samuelson (1915 - ) noted that, "Many people now believe that if
they simply hold stocks long enough they will not, lose money
for statistics have shown that since 1926 the U.S. equity market
has not suffered a loss in any given 15 year."
He called it a fallacy, and conceded that it is truly likely
that if you hold stocks over long periods of time that they
would tend to produce returns higher than other assets. But to
believe that it is a God given statement ... Is simply not
correct!
"Risk does not go to zero over long periods," but there are many
articles that reflect how risk goes down the longer the time
period. What is seldom introduced is the fact that if there is a
significant onetime loss, it can be monumentally overwhelming.
In any case Samuelson noted that: "The problem is that when
stock prices do turn down (as inevitably happens even in the
strongest of bull markets!) your optimistic equity exposure can
overwhelm your gut level risk tolerance, leading to poor
short-term judgments and even outright panic!"
Risk is a complex, multidimensional concept that manifests
itself in various ways. Risk is omnipresent and includes stock
market crashes, corporate bankruptcies, currency devaluations,
changes in sentiment, in inflation and interest rates, and even
major changes in the tax code.
Risk is generally defined as return volatility, or the degree of
ups and downs of returns. But there's more to risk than
volatility. Risk and long-term reward are generally related.
Risk is the chance that your actual return will be less than you
expected.
People sometimes think that a good return can be achieved with
little or no risk. Unfortunately, that's impossible. To achieve
your objectives, you need to assume certain risks and avoid
others.
Your ability to handle risk is related closely to your
individual circumstances, including your age, time horizon,
liquidity needs, portfolio size, income, investment knowledge,
and attitude toward price fluctuations.
What's highly risky to one individual may be no problem to
another. Short-term fluctuations are not that relevant for
long-term investors who have the discipline, patience, and
understanding to deal with them. Stock funds are actually less
risky than money market funds for those with long time horizons.
Well-informed investors are far less likely to let risk get the
best of them. Those who understand the various elements of risk
are better equipped to enjoy a profitable long-term investment
journey!
About Author :
Copyright © 2005 Ioannis - Evangelos (Akis) C. Haramis
haramis@greekshares.com http://www.greekshares.com Ioannis -
Evangelos (Akis) C. Haramis was born in Athens, Greece in 1951.
He studied in Greece, in USA and in Belgium and has been active
in the stock markets since 1972. Since 2002 he is New Business
Development Managing Director at an Investment Bank and the
publisher of http://www.greekshares.com