21 Feb 2008 02:01:56 | Carl Delfeld
Last week during his tour of Kyoto Japan, President Bush visited
the Golden Pavilion (Kinkakuji) and described it as
"magnificent". He was probably referring to the 1398 Japanese
architecture but may just as well have been referring to gold
prices which are at an 18-year high. Gold has been a magnificent
investment and still has considerable upside.
It is a rare portfolio that I build for a client that does not
have some allocation to gold and other precious metals. There
are three basic reasons why investors should still consider
adding it to their portfolio.
First, gold prices are not normally correlated to other asset
class prices. It therefore serves as a buffer or shock absorber
to the value of a portfolio when other assets classes are out of
favor.
Secondly, there are supply and demand factors. Central banks
have been net sellers of gold over the past twenty years. Gold
accounts for about 9% of the $4.4 trillion in world central bank
foreign exchange and gold reserves, down from 15% in early 2000.
But some central banks are now going the other way. For example,
the Russian central bank wants to increase gold's share of its
reserves from 5% to 10%.
Jewelry demand for gold is also picking up especially in China
and India. Global investors are also using gold as a hedge for a
global recession and potential decline in value of the U.S.
dollar or the Euro.
On the supply side, production of gold has been relatively flat
for the last 5-7 years and does not appear to be turning around
due to maturing mines and higher extraction costs.
The third reason to have some gold exposure in your portfolio is
that it serves as disaster insurance from unforeseen but
potentially devastating events such as widespread terrorism or
severe economic or political upheaval.
Many gold bugs insist that the only true gold exposure is
through gold coins. An easier way to gain instant gold exposure
is through the iShares COMEX Gold Trust ETF ( IAU) that is up
15.3% so far this year. Another option is investing through the
iShares South Africa ETF (EZA) which has considerable exposure
to the gold and mining industry and is up 15.9% this year.
Don't come down with gold fever. A 5-10% allocation to your core
conservative portfolio should get the job done. Expect some
lusterless years as well as some magnificent returns and restful
nights knowing you have some gold under the pillow.
About Author :
Carl Delfeld is head of the global advisory firm Chartwell
Partners and editor of the the "Asia-Pacific Growth" newsletter
and is the author of "The New Global Investor." For more
information please visit http://www.chartwellasia.com